Coronavirus (1054) CoVA: An Acuity Score for Outpatient Screening that Predicts COVID-19 Prognosis: Journal of Infectious Diseases article

29 October, 2020

Members involved with the treatment and management of Covid-19 may be interested in this JiD paper:



We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death for patients at risk for COVID-19 presenting for urgent care.


We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) based on a single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics (RICs) or the emergency department (ED). Data was extracted from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse, and split into development (n = 9381, March 7-May 2) and prospective (n = 2205, May 3-14) cohorts. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness (ICU or ventilation), or death within 7 days. Calibration was assessed using the expected-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).


In the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively. CoVA showed excellent performance in prospective validation for hospitalization (expected-to-observed ratio (E/O): 1.01, AUC: 0.76); for critical illness (E/O 1.03, AUC: 0.79); and for death (E/O: 1.63, AUC=0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top five were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate.


CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score for the outpatient setting to predict adverse events related to COVID-19 infection.

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HIFA profile: Julie N Reza is a UK-based specialist in communications for biosciences, global health & international development ( She predominantly works with NGOs and not-for-profit organisations. Previously she was the senior science editor at TDR, based at the World Health Organization (WHO) in Geneva; prior to this she worked at the Wellcome Trust, UK, leading educational projects on international health topics including trypanosomiasis and trachoma. She has a PhD in immunology and a specialist degree in science communication. She also has several years research and postgraduate teaching experience. She is a member of the HIFA Steering Group and HIFA Social Media Working Group.

Email: naimareza AT