Coronavirus (299) How long should social distancing last?

2 April, 2020

Dear All,

Amidst the current crisis situation with many major countries around the world under lockdown, most of us are wondering how much longer this lockdown will last for and when things are expected to get back to normal.

The following paper might help to give some insight.

How long should social distancing last? Predicting Time to Moderation, Control, and Containment of COVID-19

SSRN doi:10.2139/ssrn.3562996.

Download from: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3562996 [full text access re quires free registration]

Abstract:

Lockdowns and stay-at-home orders in response to the Covid-19 pandemic have raised an urgent question in peoples’ minds, “How long must these restrictions last?” We propose two metrics of the spread of disease to answer this question: daily growth rate and time to double cumulative cases. These metrics enable three simple, intuitive, and actionable benchmarks to target: Moderation, Control, and Containment (growth < 10%, 1%, and 0.1% respectively). In addition, we define action or intervention as massive testing and quarantine, stay-at-home orders, or lockdowns.

An analysis of top 36 countries and 50 states of the US affected by the epidemic as of end-March yield the following results. Any moderation or slowdown has so far been due only to aggressive intervention. Countries take an average of about three weeks to act. However, even aggressive intervention does not show immediate results. Countries take an average of about three weeks to moderate, four weeks to control, and over 6 weeks to contain the spread of the disease, after aggressive intervention. Substantial differences exist between large and small and Asian and European countries in time to act. Using these findings, we predict the likely dates of moderation and control for specific countries and States of the US.

In the absence of a vaccine, cure, or massive testing and quarantine, lockdowns and stay-at-home orders will need to last for months. However, the US faces a unique challenge because only half the states have adopted aggressive intervention, and done so at varying times. Even if these states achieve control or containment, they may be vulnerable to contagion from other states that were late to do so.

Thanks and Regards

Stuti

HIFA profile: Stuti Chakraborty is an undergraduate student at Christian Medical College, Vellore. She is also a member of the SDG 3 working group for the UN Major Group for Children and Youth, has been a UN online volunteer for several projects, a young peacebuilder at Youth for Peace International (India) and also a country representative for HIFA. She is now currently helping to kick-start the Women in Global Health chapter in India as part of the core team. Email: stutibb AT gmail.com She is a member of the HIFA working group on Evidence-Informed Policy and Practice. http://www.hifa.org/projects/evidence-informed-policy-and-practice Her profile is here: http://www.hifa.org/support/members/stuti