Coronavirus (973) Effect of intermittent Lockdown in containing the spread of the tranamission of COVID Virus (3)

9 September, 2020

Dear Gladson,

Thank you for replying to my queries. But, I shall start with the first two sentences of your reply.

Intermittent or rolling lockdown measures take place when *strict social distancing measures are applied and lifted periodically*. This strategy has been described as a potentially effective measure to minimise uncertainty in both effective R values, and in the severity of the virus (i.e. the proportion of cases requiring ICU admission) (The bold [asterisked] letters have been made by me).

Everything depends on the social behaviour strategy of wearing masks and keeping a safe distance of at least one meter from each other. Have you seen the newspaper reportage of the people's behaviour on days when lock down is withdrawn? People are thronging in the market places, bus stations, with some people wearing masks correctly, many either not wearing the masks incorrectly, and remaining people not wearing masks at all, and not maintaining the recommended social distance of one meter from each other at all? In this scenario, how epidemiological or epidemiological models will better describe the transmission of coronavirus infection?

With no effective drugs available till now and routine vaccination by proper vaccines available (as of now, all the vaccines are in different stages), behavioural changes and self motivation to restrict social distance norms are only tools available for containing the epidemic. Are we not increasing the chance of spread of the infection by imposing the intermittent lockdowns and their withdrawal off and on without any planning? Do you have any evidence against this?

I shall be grateful to you, if you can do a little bit of literature search, and cite me some references on the effect of behavioral change and spread of coronavirus in the population. If this can be done, the epidemiological modelling would nearer to life like situation.

Thanks,

Dr. Tusharkanti Dey

HIFA profile: Tusharkanti Dey is a Community Health Specialist at the Center for Total Development in India. Professional interests: Developing community health projects based on ICT. dr.tusharkantidey AT gmail.com