Coronavirus (975) Effect of intermittent Lockdown in containing the spread of the tranamission of COVID Virus (4)

10 September, 2020

Dear Dr. Tusharkanti,

Thanks for your comment.

Some of the findings I found on my limited preliminary search is listed below for your kind consideration. But, I believe and strongly recommend more thorough search and further advancement in research is much needed on this topic by the scientific community.

REGARDING INTERMITTENT LOCKDOWN

You said “Are we not increasing the chance of spread of the infection by imposing the intermittent lockdowns and their withdrawal off and on without any planning?”

Some findings I found regarding this-

Karaivanov, Alexander, A Social Network Model of COVID-19 (May 27, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3584895 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3584895

The above finding says -

Intermittent (“on”, “off”, “on” again) lockdown or distancing policies and behaviours are demonstrated to be effective in flattening the infection curve. Intermittent policies may be politically easier to implement and enforce but may entail larger economic or healthcare costs. Delayed or intermittent interventions or endogenous behavioural responses generate a multi-peaked infection curve, a form of ‘curve flattening’, but may have costlier economic consequences by prolonging the epidemic duration. [Please refer the above study for more information]

On further finding, as enlisted in my previous reply, from Indian Scientists' Response to COVID-19, I found following findings of your interest -

The nine scientists from across India who are part of the Indian Scientists’ Response to COVID-19 initiative have built up a model of the disease’s progression that can estimate how well different lockdown scenarios work.

They find that the best way to return a city’s population to work after the lockdown would be to have 33% of workers in any organization work for say, two days. A second 33% should then take over on the third day, and the third set replaces the second on the fifth day. This cycle, which they term a staggered workforce � or a periodic asynnchronous lockdown - is preferable to a scenario where 100% of the wworkforce resumes work simultaneously for some days before a flare up in incidence of the disease forces another full lockdown and so on � or iin other words a periodic synchronous lockdown. In their estimation, the former method (staggered workforce) reduces the peak number of hospitalizations in the workforce by almost 50% compared with the latter (synchronous lockdown). This is of course in combination with testing-quarantining.

Here is their website, for your kind consideration: https://indscicov.in/

You can join their Google group here: https://groups.google.com/g/indian-scientists-response-to-covid19

REGARDING BEHAVIOURAL CHANGES

Containing COVID-19 and restoring the economies requires not just good policy decisions and medical advice; it also needs continued compliance with the recommended behavioural changes that in many ways go against social and cultural conventions.

Replying to your request, “I shall be grateful to you, if you can do a little bit of literature search, and cite me some references on the effect of behavioural change and spread of coronavirus in the population.”

Upon literature search for the said topic, I studied the enlisted articles below, upon which, I recommend it for your kind consideration. Though, I recommend further search and investigation is always beneficial.

West, R., Michie, S., Rubin, G.J. et al. Applying principles of behaviour change to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Nat Hum Behav 4, 451�459 (2020). https://rdcu.be/b60xK

Westerhoff, H.V., Kolodkin, A.N. Advice from a systems-biology model of the corona epidemics. npj Syst Biol Appl 6, 18 (2020). DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41540-020-0138-8

John M Ruiz, PhD, Tracey A Revenson, PhD, Behavioral Medicine in the COVID-19 Era: Dawn of the Golden Age, Annals of Behavioral Medicine, Volume 54, Issue 8, August 2020, Pages 541�543, https://doi.org/10.1093/abm/kaaa057

William T Riley, Susan E Borja, Monica Webb Hooper, Ming Lei, Erica L Spotts, John R W Phillips, Joshua A Gordon, Richard J Hodes, Michael S Lauer, Tara A Schwetz, Eliseo Perez-Stable, National Institutes of Health social and behavioral research in response to the SARS-CoV2 Pandemic, Translational Behavioral Medicine, , ibaa075, https://doi.org/10.1093/tbm/ibaa075

Heesterbeek, H., Anderson, R.M., ... Wood, J., 2015. Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health. Science. DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa4339

Michael B Berg, Linda Lin, Prevalence and predictors of early COVID-19 behavioral intentions in the United States, Translational Behavioral Medicine, , ibaa085, https://doi.org/10.1093/tbm/ibaa085

Dickens, B.L., Koo, J.R., ... Cook, A.R., 2020. Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 100004. DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100004

I look forward to address any future queries to the best of my knowledge.

Thanking you,

Gladson Vaghela

HIFA profile: Gladson Vaghela is a Medical Student at GMERS Medical College Gandhinagar, India, and is a volunteer on the literature search team. gladsonsamuel75 AT gmail.com