'USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades. Our estimates show that, unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030.'
The authors estimate that 91 million deaths were prevented between 2001 and 2021 in LMICs thanks to programs supported by USAID.
Recent USAID cuts could reverse this progress and lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including over 4.5 million children under five.
CITATION: Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis
Cavalcanti, Daniella Medeiros et al.
The Lancet 30 June 2025
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01186-9/fulltext
HIFA profile: Neil Pakenham-Walsh is coordinator of HIFA (Healthcare Information For All), a global health community that brings all stakeholders together around the shared goal of universal access to reliable healthcare information. HIFA has 20,000 members in 180 countries, interacting in four languages and representing all parts of the global evidence ecosystem. HIFA is administered by Global Healthcare Information Network, a UK-based nonprofit in official relations with the World Health Organization. Email: neil@hifa.org